Tropical Storm Laura moving through the Greater Antilles before entering Gulf of Mexico – Weather Forecast Solutions
by Jordanna Sheermohamed of Weather Forecast Solutions
:::::: Via NHC:1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ::::::
LOCATION…17.8N 67.2W ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
:::::: GENERAL DISCUSSION::::::
Tropical Storm Laura looks a little bit more organized today, although still somewhat unorganized! Wind shear [how the wind changes in speed and direction with height] is making it hard for the system to become better aligned through the atmosphere; currently the disorganization can be evidenced by the lower level center of the storm located further west than the mid-level center of the system. However as mentioned yesterday, Laura will be moving into a region of decreasing wind shear values. Convection [the rising of warmer air to induce cloud formation and eventually thunderstorms] has begun blooming around the low level center, as evidenced on current satellite imagery. Current National Hurricane Center [NHC] information reports the center to be located in vicinity of 17.8N and 67.2W [65 KM WSW of Ponce Puerto Rico]
The large high pressure situated in the SW Atlantic will continue to drive the system on its more westward path, with it becoming increasingly unlikely the system will have any major impacts on metro SE Florida [Miami, Broward, Palm Beach].
The question becomes whether or not the center will reposition itself as it continues westward. If the midlevel center pinwheels up and around the current low level center, this will reposition a new center further north. This would also lift the expected trajectory slightly northward, meaning less land interaction and more of a NW run instead of the current WNW movement. This would support further intensification prior to entering into the Gulf, and additionally keep the Florida Keys squarely in the cone.
The other scenario, what is currently being observed, is the continued increase in convection around the lower level center south of Puerto Rico. This will help to pull the midlevel center further west, keeping this system on its more WNW track. Now, will it interact with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba before making its approach to the Gulf of Mexico’s doorstep? Another watch and wait. If it does, this could cause Laura to weaken before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. If it doesn’t the system has the opportunity to intensify prior to making it into the Gulf of Mexico.
Ooof… yet another system, running the Caribbean gauntlet!
:::::: PEOPLES ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO :::::::
This is going to be yet again another situation in which lead time won’t be on your side. This means you should putting together a plan. Should the system make it through the Greater Antilles with limited land interaction, Laura will have the chance to intensify before approaching the Gulf of Mexico. Then, warmer waters and minimal wind shear would likely support even more intensification before making landfall somewhere. If the system does interact with land prior to making it to the Gulf of Mexico, there is no guarantee it won’t make it through before again, allowing for intensification before making landfall. Because there are still so many “ifs” in place, it’s impossible to make a direct call now. Please keep an eye open on this system.